Is Your Major at Risk of Losing Federal Loans? How to Check Before You Enroll

By 2028, some college majors could lose access to federal student loans entirely. The Department of Education's new STATS rule ties loan eligibility to graduate earnings — and programs that don't clear the bar face losing federal funding.

If you're a high school junior, a current college student, or a parent helping your kid plan, you need to check your intended program now. Here's exactly how.

The Earnings Test, Explained Simply

The test is straightforward:

• For undergraduate programs: Do graduates earn more than the median high school diploma holder in their state? (Nationally, that's roughly $41,800/year for workers ages 25-34.)
• For graduate programs: Do graduates earn more than the median bachelor's degree holder? (Roughly $66,600/year nationally.)

Earnings are measured using IRS tax data four years after graduation. If a program fails this test in two out of three consecutive years, it loses federal loan eligibility.

Important nuance: The test is state-specific. A social worker in New York might clear the threshold while the same credential fails in Mississippi, because the benchmarks are tied to local wages.

Fields Most Likely to Be Affected

Based on current earnings data, here are the fields with the highest risk of failing the test:

Field	Typical Starting Salary	Risk Level
Early Childhood Education	$32,000 - $38,000	High
Social Work (BSW)	$36,000 - $42,000	High
Fine Arts / Art Therapy	$30,000 - $40,000	High
Music Performance	$28,000 - $38,000	High
Religious Studies / Theology	$32,000 - $40,000	High
Counseling / Mental Health	$35,000 - $44,000	Medium-High
Psychology (BA/BS only)	$38,000 - $45,000	Medium
Education / Teaching	$38,000 - $48,000	Medium
Communications	$40,000 - $50,000	Low-Medium
Criminal Justice	$40,000 - $48,000	Low-Medium

Note: Risk varies significantly by school. A social work program at a top public university in a high-wage state may pass easily, while the same degree at a small private college in a low-wage state may fail.

How to Check Any Program Right Now

You don't need to wait for the government's 2027 calculations. The earnings data is already publicly available. Here's how to check:

Step 1: Look Up Your Program's Salary Data

Go to Ask Kinsley and search for your intended major. We pull directly from the Department of Education's College Scorecard data and show you median salaries for graduates of specific programs at specific schools. This is the same underlying data the STATS rule will use.

Step 2: Compare Against the Threshold

The key question: do graduates of YOUR specific program at YOUR specific school earn more than a high school diploma holder in YOUR state? If the median salary is above ~$42,000, you're likely safe. If it's below $38,000, you're in the danger zone.

Step 3: Check the School-Level Variation

This is critical. The same major can have wildly different outcomes at different schools. A social work degree from the University of Michigan might produce graduates earning $52,000, while the same degree from a small private college might produce $34,000 earners. The school matters as much as the major when it comes to passing this test.

Step 4: Have a Contingency Plan

If your intended program is at risk:

• Consider attending a school where the program passes the earnings test. Same major, better outcome.
• Minimize your borrowing. If loans become unavailable, you'll need scholarships, grants, work-study, or savings.
• Explore related higher-earning fields. Passionate about helping people? Consider nursing, occupational therapy, or healthcare administration instead of social work — similar mission, higher earnings, safer from the rule.
• Look at dual-degree or minor options. Pair a passion field with a practical skill (social work + data analytics, education + STEM).

What About Current Students?

If you're already enrolled and have existing federal loans, you're protected for up to three years or until program completion, whichever comes first. The new rules apply to new borrowers beginning July 1, 2026, with the earliest program-level consequences hitting in 2028.

But here's the thing: even if your program doesn't lose loan access, the underlying data is still relevant. If your program's graduates earn less than a high school diploma holder, that's something you should know regardless of any government rule.

The Bottom Line

The STATS rule is coming whether you like it or not. But here's the good news: the data you need to make a smart decision already exists. You don't have to wait for the government to tell you which programs have weak earnings. You can look it up right now, compare your options, and make a decision based on facts.

We believe families deserve that data — and deserve the freedom to use it however they see fit. That's why we built Ask Kinsley. Not to tell you what to study, but to make sure you know exactly what you're getting into.